Moderna Inc

MRNA

Moderna Inc

@philfischerflank
• 3 months ago

Challenge Day 2

Is The Business Growing?

Today I’m digging into whether Moderna is actually growing, with a short post.

Core metrics: (2016–2024)

  • Revenue: peak ~19.3B USD (2022) -> 6.85B (2023) -> 3.24B (2024)

  • Net income: huge profits 2021–2022 -> multi-Billion USD losses 2023–2024

  • Free cash flow: +13.3B (2021) -> -3.8B (2023) → -4.1B (2024)

  • Equity: ~19.1B (2022) -> ~13.9B (2023) -> ~10.9B (2024)

My Conclusion:

Because COVID created a one-off spike, multi-year CAGR is not a reliable growth signal here. Moderns is in a post COVID reset and cash-burn phase. From a investment perspective it's at most a turnaround option on pipeline execution and reacceleration maybe with better political support and research funding in the future like competitors get. On 2022-2024 fundamentals not growing, contracting and burning cash, which doesn't rule out future growth, but current reported growth is negative.