CAVA Group Inc

CAVA

CAVA Group Inc

@david
1 year ago

What's Their Growth Strategy?

What's Their Growth Strategy?
They have a goal of hitting 1,000 restaurants by 2032. Some quick back-of-the-envelope math... They report in their annual report a stat called "Cava AUV"... which in 2023 had the following quarterly results... 2,639 $ 2,640 $ 2,599 $ 2,547 For simplicity, let's assume this is $10M/yr per restaurant. If they open 700 more restaurants (currently have 309 as of Dec 31, 2023), we should expect revenue in 2032 to be ~$10B/yr Or, if they have $717M in revenue right now, and plan to add 700 more stores, then we'd expect $23B in revenue by 2032. I'll use the midpoint, which accounts for same-store sales growth and other business efficiency: $16.5B by 2032. Given their current P/S ratio as 6.70, assuming that holds constant (somewhat unlikely), we'd expect a market capitalization of $110B, roughly the same size as Chipotle, and ~10x higher than now. I need to check these numbers better, but this is interesting.