The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, a thought experiment that is bullish AI, and bearish the economy

“The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” by Citrini Research and Alap Shah, a scenario exercise written as a “macro memo from June 2028.” It is not a prediction, it is a structured thought experiment about what happens if AI keeps exceeding expectations, and that success becomes economically destabilizing.

Core loop (the scary part)
• AI gets cheaper and better
• Firms cut white-collar payroll, margins look great, earnings beat
• Savings get redeployed into more AI compute and tooling
• Displaced workers spend less, and the consumer economy weakens
• The loop reinforces itself, with no obvious brake

They frame this as “Ghost GDP”, output shows up in the accounts, but does not circulate through households, so velocity flatlines and the human consumer engine withers.


Link to the article:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic