General

General

@david
8 months ago

Why the P/E Ratio Is the Most Misunderstood Metric in Investing

Most new investors hear about the P/E ratio within their first week of research. Price divided by earnings. Sounds simple, right?

It is. But even experienced investors get it wrong.

In fact, P/E ratio might be the most misunderstood metric in all of investing—and misunderstanding it has cost countless investors big opportunities.

## What the P/E Ratio Really Is

At its core, the P/E ratio tells you:

How much you’re paying for $1 of a company’s earnings.

If a stock trades at a P/E of 20, it means you’re paying $20 for every $1 the company earned in the past year.

High number = “expensive.”

Low number = “cheap.”

Seems straightforward. But here’s the catch…

## The Trap: P/E Is a Static Snapshot

Dogmatic value investors miss the point. Some will say, if it’s over 20, value purists walk away. If it’s under 10, they call it a bargain.

But the E in that formula—earnings—is backward-looking (unless it's FWD P/E).

P/E is almost always based on the trailing 12 months of earnings. It tells you where a business has been, not where it’s going.

If earnings are growing faster than the market expects, today’s “expensive” stock could actually be tomorrow’s steal.

A Real Example of mine

When I first started buying Amazon back in 2012-14, its P/E ratio floated between 200-1,000.

To a strict value investor, that’s insanity.

To me, it was a bet on the future.

I saw how they were investing in huge distribution centers, I saw how Prime memberships were becoming an IQ test to the consumer. I saw they had first mover advantage in the Cloud. I read Bezo's annual report letters and knew his vision.

Yes, the P/E looked absurd. But it completely ignored what Amazon was building.

If I had judged Amazon on its P/E alone, I would’ve missed a great investment that has made me tens of thousands of dollars (almost $100K now). In my journey as an investor, I missed out on Netflix and Nvidia due to high PE ratios.

## Why P/E Misleads Investors

  • It punishes reinvestment. Companies like Amazon poured money into growth—distribution centers, cloud, infrastructure—which made their earnings look weak in the short run.

  • It ignores growth potential. Nvidia trades at ~58× earnings today. That looks steep—unless you believe in decades of AI-driven demand.

  • It fuels dogma. Many investors refuse to touch anything above 20× earnings, shutting themselves off from innovative businesses.

## The Lesson

P/E is useful—but only as a starting point.

It can tell you how the market is currently valuing past earnings, but it says almost nothing about:

  • A company’s growth trajectory

  • Competitive advantages

  • Industry tailwinds

  • Future cash flows

That’s why some of the world’s best investors (including Buffett himself) have bought stocks with sky-high P/Es when they believed future earnings would justify the price.

## Takeaway for Flankers

Don’t let a single number stop you from doing real research.

  • Look beyond the ratio.

  • Study the business model, growth drivers, and economics.

  • Ask: What do I know about this company’s future that the market doesn’t yet see?

That’s the difference between being scared off by a “high P/E” and spotting the next Tesla.

I'll close with one of my favorite excerpts from legendary investor Howard Mark's Memos:

Valuations matter. You should absolutely be wary of an extremely high PE ratio, but don't look at it in a vacuum

We made a video on this whole subject. If you prefer a more conversational format, you can check it out here.