3 Companies Ruling the New Money Game

## Follow the Money (2025 Fintech Edition)

TL;DR: The “money rails” are shifting. Three names tell the story:

## PayPal — The OG on a comeback plan

Founded by the “PayPal Mafia,” it’s the incumbent with massive distribution (incl. Venmo).
Stock ran to $308 in 2021, crashed to ~$50 by late 2023, now around $70 with a ~15x trailing P/E.
New CEO Alex Chriss is refocusing: fewer bets, push branded checkout and reignite Venmo.
Six straight profitable quarters, but Street wants faster branded checkout growth.
Framing: Classic value + execution story. If the core checkout engine re-accelerates, multiple expansion follows.

## Affirm — BNPL’s disciplined grown-up

Plugged into online, in-store, Apple Pay, plus an Affirm debit card.
Model: pay merchants upfront (take a fee), offer consumers transparent installment options.
Revenue ~$3.2B in FY’25, ~38% CAGR since 2020; first full-year GAAP profit (15¢).
Stock whipsawed post-pandemic, then ripped from $9 (Dec ’22) to the mid-$80s recently.
Framing: Profitable growth with operating leverage—watch credit quality, funding costs, and merchant mix.

## Klarna — The wildcard going public

Swedish BNPL pioneer eyeing a NYSE debut, targeting up to ~$1.27B raise at ~$14B valuation.
Recently replaced Affirm as Walmart’s exclusive BNPL partner—upping the rivalry.
Deep Silicon Valley DNA via Sequoia; strategically positioned with global reach.
Framing: Fresh listing + big distribution—price discipline and unit economics will be everything.

## The Simple Take

You’ve got:

## What I’m Watching Next

Branded checkout share at PayPal (elasticity to product/UI changes).
Credit performance & funding costs at BNPLs (cycle sensitivity).
Mega-merchants (Walmart, Amazon, Apple) and platform default options—distribution is destiny.
Regulation on BNPL disclosures/underwriting—could redraw moats overnight.