What's Their Growth Strategy?

Sphere Entertainment’s management has long indicated that a global network of Sphere venues is the ultimate goal, leveraging the Las Vegas Sphere’s success and lessons learned to drive future growth

Possible new locations include:

Abu Dhabi, UAE (Middle East): In October 2024, Sphere Entertainment announced a partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture and Tourism to develop a second Sphere in the UAE capital . Notably, Abu Dhabi will fund the construction of this Sphere and pay Sphere Entertainment a franchise fee to use the Sphere designs, as well as ongoing annual fees for “creative and artistic content” . This franchise-style deal means Sphere Entertainment can expand its brand with minimal capital investment, earning high-margin fees once the venue opens.
London, UK (Europe): The company had proposed an MSG Sphere London in the Stratford area of East London, with a 21,500-seat capacity, identical in concept to Las Vegas. However, this project faced local opposition and concerns about light pollution from the massive LED exterior. In 2023 the Mayor of London rejected the planning permission, and MSG officially withdrew the plans in January 2024 . Thus, the London Sphere is on hold indefinitely, illustrating the challenges of building such an unconventional venue in certain cities.
Other Potential Locations: Sphere Entertainment has signaled interest in other global markets as well. Trademark filings for the “Sphere” name have been made in Japan, Oman, and Qatar, among others, suggesting those regions are being eyed for future Spheres (though no formal projects have been announced there yet). There have also been reports of talks in South Korea with potential partners . James Dolan has indicated that expanding to more markets is key to making the Sphere business truly profitable at scale. In general, the company is looking for major international hubs or tourist destinations where a Sphere venue could thrive, often via partnerships or licensing deals (similar to Abu Dhabi) to reduce the financial burden on Sphere Entertainment.
Additional Small Spheres: By 2030, Sphere Entertainment aims to have at least one or two of the new “small Spheres” in operation. Potentially, we could see a 5,000-seat Sphere in a market like East Asia (for instance, a city like Seoul or Tokyo, given the reported interest in South Korea and trademark in Japan). It’s also possible a smaller Sphere could be built in another U.S. city or a regional tourism hub if opportunities arise. Let’s assume two smaller Spheres are launched by 2030. Each of these venues, with one-third the capacity of Las Vegas, might generate perhaps $100–$200 million per year in revenue when ramped up (owing to slightly lower ticket volumes, though potentially high ticket prices for the unique experience). They would likely host scaled-down versions of the Vegas shows and films, localized content, and events suited to their markets. If Sphere Entertainment owns/operates these outright, it would book those revenues directly; if they are co-owned via partnerships, Sphere might record only a portion (similar to the franchise model). For our projection, let’s assume Sphere Entertainment directly operates them or consolidates most of their revenue.

I wanted to see what this would look like projected out to 2030.

Here are my assumptions:

By 2030, Sphere could be running a portfolio of ~3–4 Sphere venues (Las Vegas, Abu Dhabi, and ~2 smaller ones). Annual revenues for the company in that scenario could roughly double from current levels. For example, a possible breakdown might be:

Las Vegas Sphere: ~$500M
Two Small Spheres: ~$150M each x 2 = ~$300M
Abu Dhabi fees: ~$75M (midpoint of our est.)
MSG Networks (sports media): ~$500M (assuming similar scale as mid-2020s, albeit this could change)

This hypothetical puts 2030 revenues around $1.3–1.5 billion per year (all figures USD). That is in the same ballpark of 1.5× to 2× the FY2024 revenue.

Not too exciting to me. Slightly Bearish.